In our case, this signals a potential opportunity for sports bettors, so let’s dive in. The above graph is the one that makes us sit up in our seat because, for the first time, we have lines on a graph that run North and South instead of always going East and West. Let’s look at how oddsmakers do when they are setting odds for games with more than a 30+ point spread. NCAA Basketball Games With Point-Spreads Above +30 Points Our very first takeaway from this exercise is that oddsmakers are extremely good at setting NCAAB point spreads, especially at games where the spread falls between zero and thirty points. The orange line in the graph above shows us that a basic strategy of blindly betting only underdogs at all point spread totals would have a negative ROI once you factor in the juice or vig.

This tells us that oddsmakers are extremely good at accurately setting spreads in college basketball, never having either a favorite or underdog cover at a rate significantly above 50%. The important takeaway from the blue line in our graph is that underdogs cover at a rate of 50% across all point spread totals. In our graph above, the blue line represents underdogs and how often they cover the spread.Our graph only includes games from 0 to +30 point spreads. NCAAB Games With Point-Spreads Between 0 – 30 PTS We shared our research below and stumbled across some very interesting stats along the way. We analyzed 73,000 individual games dating back to 2003, just to get an understanding of how good oddsmakers are at setting point spreads in college basketball. The 350 teams play somewhere close to 5,800 – 6,000 games each season and oddsmakers create point spreads for all of those games. When you have 350 schools in the same league, you are going to have a huge variance of skill and talent level amongst those teams. Did you know there are 350 NCAA Division-1 college basketball teams?

Basketball point spread betting